Multifamily Investment updates (DFW)– Oct 2025

I attended the Annual Old Capital Conference in Dallas in Oct and I’d love to share what I have learnt here.

The Dallas–Fort Worth (DFW) apartment market remains relatively healthy despite macroeconomic headwinds. Leasing demand has stayed surprisingly strong through 2025, even as local job creation slowed compared with the previous decade’s highs. Occupancy at stabilized properties sits around 94.2%, showing gradual improvement, though still lagging the national norm. Rent trends are mixed: operators have adopted a “heads-on-beds” strategy, prioritizing occupancy over rent increases. As a result, move-in rents have declined about 2–3%, while renewal rents continue to rise moderately at roughly 3%, reflecting stable tenant retention.

Housing affordability constraints—including high home prices (median $400K) and elevated mortgage rates—are keeping many households in the rental market. However, consumer sentiment is fragile, and rising credit card debt and delinquencies signal growing financial stress among renters.

On the supply side, new apartment completions are tapering, with construction down roughly 40% from 2023 peaks, though ongoing projects remain substantial (~47,000 units). Other Texas metros show similar dynamics: Houston is steady, Austin faces oversupply, and San Antonio remains moderate.

Looking ahead, assuming no major recession, occupancy should hold steady, rents may stabilize or slightly rise in 2026, and middle-market properties are expected to outperform both luxury and low-end segments.